China’s Ministry of Commerce on Monday rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s accusations that Beijing had violated the Geneva trade agreement. The ministry stated that China had “taken seriously, strictly implemented, and actively upheld” the terms agreed in the recent Geneva talks.
Beijing criticized Washington’s claims as baseless, accusing the U.S. of “unreasonably accusing China of violating the consensus, which is seriously contrary to the facts.” Trump last week claimed China had breached the deal but did not specify any particular violations.
While the Geneva agreement saw both countries reduce tariffs, tensions remain high. China has repeatedly expressed concern over U.S. restrictions on its semiconductor industry, calling them a threat to the agreement’s spirit. The U.S. acknowledged last week that talks had stalled, suggesting a direct conversation between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may be necessary.
The Geneva deal did lower some tariffs, but duties remain elevated. Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, introduced in April, triggered retaliatory measures from China, straining both economies. Recent data showed a slowdown in Chinese exports and industrial output, highlighting the trade war’s impact.
Meanwhile, global oil prices rebounded more than $1 a barrel on Monday after OPEC+ announced a July output hike of 411,000 barrels per day—the same as the previous two months. The moderate increase came as a relief to markets bracing for a larger production jump. Goldman Sachs expects a final similar hike in August.
OPEC+ is balancing market share goals with discipline among members, even as Kazakhstan signaled it would not cut production. Oil prices had fallen in recent weeks due to concerns over rising supply and the uncertainty from Trump’s tariff policies.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war continues to add to global instability. The Kremlin said Ukraine has not yet responded to its proposal for new peace talks in Istanbul next week. The prolonged conflict is keeping geopolitical risks elevated, affecting commodity prices and investor sentiment.
In the airline industry, global carriers revised down their 2025 profit forecast to $36.0 billion from an earlier $36.6 billion, citing trade tensions and weakening consumer confidence. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said aircraft delivery delays were also straining operations. Despite the revision, profits are still expected to rise from $32.4 billion in 2024.
“Earning a $36 billion profit is significant, but that equates to just $7.20 per passenger,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh.
UBS, in a recent advisory, urged investors to reassess U.S. dollar exposure. With the dollar showing signs of weakening, the bank recommended diversifying into currencies like the euro, Swiss franc, or gold. For higher risk tolerance, emerging market currencies may offer better yields, though with greater volatility.
As the global economic outlook remains uncertain, investors and policymakers alike are closely watching inflation data and geopolitical developments that could reshape financial markets in the months ahead.
Keywords: Donald Trump tariffs, China trade agreement, Geneva deal, U.S.-China trade war, OPEC+ oil production, oil price rebound, Russia-Ukraine war, global economic tensions, airline profits, aircraft delivery delays, U.S. dollar weakening, currency diversification, UBS investment advice, emerging market currencies, gold hedge.
