In a move that caught the attention of energy watchers, Barclays has lowered its Brent oil forecast now expecting prices to average $66 per barrel in 2025 and $60 in 2026. The revision comes as OPEC+ pushes ahead with faster output increases, a strategy largely driven by Saudi Arabia’s push to rein in members lagging behind on production quotas. The broader signal? More oil could be coming into the market faster than expected.
Oil futures reacted quickly, with Brent sliding more than $2 early Monday and dipping below the $60 mark. Barclays also suggested that OPEC+ is likely to wrap up its voluntary production cuts sooner than originally planned, pointing to stronger fundamentals rather than oversupply fears.
While oil wrestles with supply shifts, global markets are navigating a messier terrain. Rising geopolitical tensions especially in the Middle East and Eastern Europe—are keeping investors on edge. Escalating threats between Israel and the Houthis, as well as renewed Russian warnings about Ukraine, have given gold a much-needed lift as a traditional safe haven. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, remains in a holding pattern ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.
On the trade front, the situation is no less complex. President Trump has stirred fresh uncertainty with steep new tariffs, including a 100% duty on foreign-made films and a hefty 145% on Chinese imports. Despite denying any current conversations with President Xi, Trump acknowledged that some dialogue between U.S. and Chinese officials is happening and even hinted at trade deals being announced soon. But the mixed signals are keeping markets cautious, not convinced of any immediate breakthroughs.
Stock futures slipped after a historic winning streak in the S&P 500, as investors tread carefully ahead of the Fed’s decisions. With Goldman Sachs and Barclays now expecting rate cuts to be pushed to July, the policy outlook remains murky.
Uncertainty is becoming the only constant whether it’s energy, trade, or monetary policy. For now, markets seem to be balancing hope with hesitation, watching for clarity in a world that’s anything but clear.
